Election: Preliminary Results

05blogihec11.jpgBy Stephen Farrell

Logo for Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission.These are the results of the main parties with 90% of the votes counted in the 14 provinces taking part in Iraq’s 2009 provincial elections, as announced by Faraj al-Haidary, the head of Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission.

The preliminary count shows Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition getting the biggest vote in nine out of the 14 provinces contested, but nowhere does he manage an absolute majority. His highest tally is 38% in Baghdad, but in other areas he is on 11% to 20%, which means he will be dependent on other coalition partners, or could even be squeezed out by others forming alliances against him.

It is unclear exactly how many seats each of the leading parties will win – with between 26 and 57 up for grabs in each province, depending on its size. The full results will take more than three weeks, because of complex voting rules on how to allocate seats. Anbar could prove problematic, with some parties alleging voting irregularities. For an analysis, see Alissa Rubin’s story.

BAGHDAD

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite-Islamist – 38%
Sadrists/Shiite-Islamist – 9%
Tawafiq/Sunni Islamist– 9%
Iraqiya/Ayad Allawi/Moderate – 8.6%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 5.4%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/ Shiite-Islamist – 4.3%
Mithal al-Alusi/Sunni Moderate – 1.6%
Fadhila/Shiite-Islamist – 1.3%
Communist Party – 1.2%

ANBAR

Iraqi National Project/Salih al-Mutlaq – 17.6%
Awakening of Iraq and Independents/Sunni Tribal – 17.1%
Tawafiq/Sunni Islamist – 15.9%
National Movement for Reform and Development – 7.8%
Iraqiya/Ayad AllawiModerate– 6.6%
Iraqi Unity – 4.6%
Tribes of Iraq – 4.5%
The Group of Scholars and Intellectuals – 3.3%
Justice Movement – 3.2%
National Bloc – 2.3%
Constitution Party – 2%

BABIL

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite-Islamist – 12.5%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 8.2%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist– 6.2%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 4.4%
Iraqi Commission for NGOs – 4.1%
Independent Justice – 3.7%
Independent Ansar – 3.4%
Iraqiya/Ayad Allawi/Moderate – 3.4%
National Unity– 3.3%

BASRA
State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 37%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 11.6%
Gathering of Justice and Unity – 5.5%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 5%
Tawafiq/Sunni Islamist – 3.8%
Fadhila/Shiite Islamist – 3.2%
Iraqiya/Ayad Allawi/Moderate – 3.2%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 2.5%

DHI QAR

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 23.1%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 14.1%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 11.1%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 7.6%
Fadhila/Shiite Islamist – 6.1%
Constitutional – 3.2%
Iraqiya/Ayad Allawi/Moderate – 2.8%

DIYALA

Tawafiq/Sunni Islamist – 21.1%
Kurdish Alliance – 17.2%
Iraqi National Project/Salih al-Mutlaq/Sunni Moderate – 15%
Iraqiya/Ayad Allawi/Moderate – 9.5%
State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 6%
Coalition of Diyala – 5.3%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari – 4.3%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 3.1%
National Movement – 2.6%
Fadhila/Shiite Islamist – 2.3%

KARBALA

Yousef Majid al-Habboubi/Shiite Moderate – 13.3%
Hope of Rafidain – 8.8%
State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 8.5%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 6.8%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist– 6.4%
Justice and Reform – 3.6%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 2.5%
Fadhila/Shiite Islamist – 2.5%

MAYSAN

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 17.7%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 15.2%
ISCI//Shiite Islamist – 14.6%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 8.7%
Fadhila/Shiite Islamist – 3.2%

MUTHANNA

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 10.9%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 9.3%
Jumhouriyoun – 7.1%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 6.3%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 5.1%
National List – 5%
Gathering of Muthanna – 4.9%
Academics – 4.4%
Middle Euphrates – 3.9%
Fadhila/Shiite Islamist – 3.7%
Iraqiya/Ayad Allawi/Moderate – 3.5%

NAJAF

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 16.2%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 14.8%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 12.2%
Loyalty to Najaf – 8.3%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 7%
Union of Independent Najaf – 3.7%
Tribes and Sons of Najaf – 2.6%

NINEVEH

Hadba/Sunni nationalist – 38.4%
Kurdish Alliance – 25.5%
Iraqi Islamic Party/Sunni Islamist – 6.7%
Turkmen Front – 2.8%
National Iraqi Project/Salih Mutlaq/Sunni Moderate – 2.6%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 1.9%

QADISIYA

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 23.1%
ISCI//Shiite Islamist – 11.7%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 8.2%
Iraqiya/Ayad Allawi/Moderate – 8%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 6.7%
Islamic Loyalty – 4.3%
Fadhila//Shiite Islamist – 4.1%
Development of Diwaniya – 3.4%
Chalabi – 3%

SALAHUDDIN

Tawafiq/Sunni Islamist – 14.5%
Allawi/Moderate – 13.9%
Iraqi National Project/Salih al-Mutlaq/Sunni Moderate – 8.7%
Jumuaa – 8.5%
Scholars and Intellectuals – 6.6%
Turkmen Front – 4.8%
Salahaddin List – 4.6%
Taaqi List – 4.5%
Tahrir wa Binaa – 4.5%
State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 3.5%
Constitution – 3.2%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 2.9%

WASIT

State of Law/Nuri Kamal al-Maliki/Shiite Islamist – 15.3%
ISCI/Shiite Islamist – 10%
Sadrists/Shiite Islamist – 6%
Allawi/Moderate – 4.6%
Constitutional – 3.9%
National Reform Trend/Ibrahim al-Jaafari/Shiite Islamist – 3.2%
Independence – 3%

More than 14,000 candidates from 400 political parties and lists registered with Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission, which was supported by the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, or UNAMI

SHIITE ISLAMIST PARTIES

Dawa/State of Law Party: The party of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal Al-Maliki. It is Shiite Islamist but has tried to play down its religious roots and present itself as nationalist. Early indications were that it was going to perform strongly in these elections, benefiting from Mr. Maliki’s current high personal standing as a leader with a good security record.

Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq/Martyr of the Pulpit: The election platform of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim’s Shiite Islamist party known by its initials ISCI. Until now the most powerful party in the government. Extremely close to Iran, where most of its senior figures spent years in exile under Saddam Hussein, and where its Badr Brigades militia was trained, although it has sought to distance itself from Tehran in recent years. The Badr Brigades were absorbed into the Iraqi army and police, giving it great power. Early indications were that it would lose ground, and it did.

Sadrists: the radical populist Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr is not contesting these elections, but his movement has thrown its backing behind two parties – Integrity and Construction and the Independent Free People’s Trend.

SHIITE MODERATE

Iraqi National List/Iraqiya: The moderate secular list led by the former Baathist turned exiled Saddam opponent Ayad Allawi emphasizes its non-sectarian, technocratic approach to governance. Allawi, an American and British favorite who was appointed unelected Prime Minister in 2004 by the United States. Admired by some as a strong secular Shiite leader who in 2004 cracked down equally on troublesome (Sunni) insurgents in Falluja and (Shiite) militiamen in Najaf. Did not perform as well as some secular moderates hoped.

Karbala: Yousef Majid al-Habboubi, a secular independent Shiite candidate who was the deputy governor under the Baathist regime before the 2003 U.S. led invasion. He became Mayor of the city of Karbala, and helped develop the city, particularly the square between the city’s two imposing golden shrines to the Shiite imams Hussein and Abbas. This earned him considerable popularity in Karbala, whose population is proud of its status as the second holiest Shhite site in Iraq, after neighboring Najaf.

SUNNI PARTIES

Tawafiq/Iraqi Accordance Front: A coalition of Sunni Islamist parties dominated by the Iraqi Islamic Party, a long time opponent of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party. The main Sunni coalition dominated by Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and Adnan al-Dulaimi. Tawafiq’s origins are Islamist, but it has run primarily as the party that represents Sunni interests. It faces its first serious challenge this year from the parties of the tribal Sahwa (Awakening) movement, primarily in once-troubled Anbar Province.

Al-Hadba (NINEVEH) Al-Hadba is a coalition of mostly Sunni politicians in Nineveh province who boycotted the last provincial elections in 2005, effectively handing over political power to the Kurdish minority. Al Hadba’s candidates campaigned heavily on local grievances over Kurdish dominance, complaining that the province’s government failed to provide basic services and security in one of Iraq’s most volatile regions.

The Nineveh Alliance (NINEVEH): Known as the Nineveh Fraternity, Brotherly Nineveh or simply the Kurdish Alliance, the slate includes regional leaders from all the major Kurdish parties, as well as the Iraqi Communist Party, the Assyrian National Party and the Chaldean Democratic Union Party. The Kurdish parties, especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party, used their political power to assert greater control over parts of Nineveh which the Kurds claimed as part of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The Kurdish militia, or peshmerga, provided most security, often stoking resentment among Sunni Arabs especially in the region’s capital, Mosul.

The Awakening (ANBAR): The Awakening, or Sawha, grew out of the Sunni tribes in the vast Anbar province who abandoned the insurgency in 2006 and joined with the Americans and the Iraqi government to fight Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and other Sunni extremists, one of the most significant reasons for the sharp drop in violence. The Americans showered the groups with money and support, but as the elections approached, they splintered into competing factions. The maiin one is led by an influential tribal sheik, Ahmed Abu Risha. Having boycotted the previous vote in 2005 , they saw the election as a chance to translate their tribal leadership into political power, hoping to oust the Sunnis of the Iraqi Islamic Party, which has dominated the province since 2005.

The provisional turnout figures for each province, announced on February 1, were:

Total number of registered voters: 14.9 million
Turnout: 7.5 million
Turnout percentage: 51%

Provinces turnout:
Basra: 48%
Maysan: 46%
Dhi Qar: 50%
Muthanna: 61%
Qadisiya: 58%
Najaf: 55%
Anbar: 40%
Salahaddin: 65%
Wasit: 54%
Karbala: 60%
Babel 56%
Diyala: 57%
Nineveh: 60%
Baghdad: awaiting figures from some polling centers– expected 39-40%

http://baghdadbureau.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/election-preliminary-results/